🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, sparking debate about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January surged in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been taken into custody. A particular user, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436K from a initial bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of a political change at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment immediately prior to the official statement was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," stated a financial reform advocate. Several of other platform users also profited large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule presented on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Market Background Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."