A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
