Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.
The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.
He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.
Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.
It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.
