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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still